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Monthly GDP Comes Into Focus (Oct 31, 0830ET)

CANADA DATA
  • Monthly real GDP for August and the advance release for September lands tomorrow at 0830ET, marking the first important local data release since the BoC decision on Wednesday.
  • Growth is due to be looked at particularly closely after the dovish market reaction to the BoC came with greater weight placed on the soft growth outlook (with potential for the market to already be in excess supply) over the increasing persistence of underlying inflation.
  • Consensus sticks with the 0.1% M/M from the August advance, notably tepid following 0.0% in July and -0.2% in June.
  • CIBC and RBC below see slightly different estimates for Q3, but either would be markedly slower than the 4.9% GDP growth reported last week in the US Q3 advance release. Recall, the BoC now forecasts 0.8% annualized for Q3, revised down from an original 1.5%.
  • RBC: “We continue to track a second consecutive quarterly dip in GDP in Q3 after output edged down 0.2% (annualized) in Q2, with those readings both looking substantially softer on a per-capita basis once accounting for surging population growth.”
  • CIBC: “While consumer spending appears to have remained sluggish in September, a rebound in commodities production and transportation following the wildfire and port strike disruption should bring another modest increase in monthly GDP to end Q3. For the quarter as a whole, an annualized growth rate of 0.4% would be pretty disappointing following the surprise contraction in Q2.
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