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Monthly GDP Growth Very Roughly In Line With BoC Forecast

CANADA DATA
  • GDP came in below consensus in February at 0.05% M/M (cons 0.2) but was mostly offset by an upward revised 0.6% in Jan (initial 0.5%).
  • The March advance pencils in a contraction of -0.1%. As is customary for monthly GDP the press release doesn’t indicate a response rate but care should still be taken after retail sales saw an extremely low response for its advance amidst disruption from ongoing federal worker strikes.
  • Taken as a given, monthly GDP would hit 2.5% annualized in Q1 from the 0.9% registered in Q4, but this is a timely reminder of how the monthly GDP and more official quarterly GDP figures can differ with the quarterly data printing just 0.0% in Q4.
  • With these various caveats aside, it’s currently consistent with the BoC’s forecast of quarterly GDP at 2.3% in Q1 which it then sees slowing to 1.0% in Q2.

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