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A new poll from Virginia University’s Wilder School has exposed more major warning signs for Biden in Virginia, a state he won comfortably in 2020 and wasn’t considered likely to be competitive in November.
- Wilder notes: “When asked who they would vote for if the election for president was being held today,” Donald Trump 39% leads Joe Biden 36%.
- The report notes: “…this poll but sees a shift towards President Trump compared to VCU Wilder School’s December poll which had President Biden leading President Trump 42% - 39%.”
- Former Democrat Governor of Virginia Douglas Wilder, the operator of the poll, said: “I think the results show that Virginia is truly a “battleground state” for the presidency. The drop by 20% (46%) of Black Virginians since December, where 67% supported Biden, should be concerning relative to turnout affecting congressional races, in particular in competitive districts 7 and 2.”
- The survey also throws up an extraordinary 13-point polling gap between Biden and Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) who is running for re-election.
- Semafor notes: “We’re seeing a ton of separation between Biden and down-ballot Democrats, more like the gap between his approval rating and Democratic performance in 2022 than anything in a modern presidential election.”
Figure 1: Virginia Polling, Presidential and Senate Election
Source: Virginia University’s Wilder School
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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