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More Warning Signs For Biden In Virginia

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A new poll from Virginia University’s Wilder School has exposed more major warning signs for Biden in Virginia, a state he won comfortably in 2020 and wasn’t considered likely to be competitive in November.

  • Wilder notes: “When asked who they would vote for if the election for president was being held today,” Donald Trump 39% leads Joe Biden 36%.
  • The report notes: “…this poll but sees a shift towards President Trump compared to VCU Wilder School’s December poll which had President Biden leading President Trump 42% - 39%.”
  • Former Democrat Governor of Virginia Douglas Wilder, the operator of the poll, said: “I think the results show that Virginia is truly a “battleground state” for the presidency. The drop by 20% (46%) of Black Virginians since December, where 67% supported Biden, should be concerning relative to turnout affecting congressional races, in particular in competitive districts 7 and 2.”
  • The survey also throws up an extraordinary 13-point polling gap between Biden and Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) who is running for re-election.
  • Semafor notes: “We’re seeing a ton of separation between Biden and down-ballot Democrats, more like the gap between his approval rating and Democratic performance in 2022 than anything in a modern presidential election.”

Figure 1: Virginia Polling, Presidential and Senate Election

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A new poll from Virginia University’s Wilder School has exposed more major warning signs for Biden in Virginia, a state he won comfortably in 2020 and wasn’t considered likely to be competitive in November.

  • Wilder notes: “When asked who they would vote for if the election for president was being held today,” Donald Trump 39% leads Joe Biden 36%.
  • The report notes: “…this poll but sees a shift towards President Trump compared to VCU Wilder School’s December poll which had President Biden leading President Trump 42% - 39%.”
  • Former Democrat Governor of Virginia Douglas Wilder, the operator of the poll, said: “I think the results show that Virginia is truly a “battleground state” for the presidency. The drop by 20% (46%) of Black Virginians since December, where 67% supported Biden, should be concerning relative to turnout affecting congressional races, in particular in competitive districts 7 and 2.”
  • The survey also throws up an extraordinary 13-point polling gap between Biden and Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) who is running for re-election.
  • Semafor notes: “We’re seeing a ton of separation between Biden and down-ballot Democrats, more like the gap between his approval rating and Democratic performance in 2022 than anything in a modern presidential election.”

Figure 1: Virginia Polling, Presidential and Senate Election

Keep reading...Show less