Morgan Stanley economists Ellen.....>

US DATA PREVIEW: Morgan Stanley economists Ellen Zentner and Robert Rosener

expect Fri 8:30am ET Oct. employment report to show "315,000 net new jobs," with

"unemployment rate stable at 4.2% and a 0.3% monthly increase in average hourly

earnings, lowering the year-over-year rate slightly to 2.8% from 2.9% last

month. Our expectation for headline payroll growth is just slightly above

consensus at 312k, and our earnings forecast is above the consensus median

estimate of 0.2%."

- They add "October's employment data will likely see a sharp rebound in

payrolls following September's 33k decline, as the hurricane effects are unwound

and the labor market normalizes. Looking through the hurricane-related noise,

our range of models points to a strong rate of underlying net new job growth in

the 170K to 180K range." 

- They forecast 0.3% Oct. avg hourly earnings gain, "slightly below the 0.5%

gain posted in September, but still consistent with gradually building wage

pressures". They also expect a 4.2% Oct. jobless rate and a 62.9% participation

rate.