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Morgan Stanley Expects Eased Oil Market Tightness Next Year

OIL

Oil markets are currently tight but will likely be in surplus next year according to Morgan Stanley, causing Brent prices to fall into the high to mid-$70’s range.

  • The bank expects oil market tightness to hold for most of Q3 while OPEC supply growth and a seasonal demand slowdown ease pressure in Q4.
  • Morgan Stanley said it expects OPEC and non-OPEC supply to grow by about 2.5 mn bpd in 2025 - well ahead of demand growth.
  • The bank expects refinery runs to peak in August and not return to that level until July 2025.
  • Morgan Stanleys Q3 Brent forecast remains at $86/bbl – the same as Goldman Sachs.

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