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Morgan Stanley on Jan Employ Report

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Jan NFP data is out next Friday, Bbg median estimate at +168k vs. +199k in December. MS economists forecasting above consensus with 225k job gains.
  • MS expectations: "smaller than usual seasonal declines in state and local education categories, resulting in a 40k rise in public payrolls and a 185k rise in private payrolls as we think the omicron variant weighted on hiring on some industries such as construction, manufacturing."
  • "participation rate was unchanged at 61.9% which, together with our forecast for the change in payrolls, would lower the unemployment rate to 3.8% from 3.9 % in December."
  • "After a strong 0.6%M rise in average hourly earnings, we expect a softer 0.4%M rise in January consistent with the recent trend in earnings and a slight downside associated with a change in the composition of employment and our expectation that job gains will be concentrated in low-wage industries."
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