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Free AccessMorgan Stanley: Powell To Underscore That Every Meeting Is Live
Morgan Stanley expects the FOMC to signal a March hike in the January statement, but Powell to avoid committing to a pace of tightening while also delivering additional details on QT.
- Statement: To signal March hike with language: "if labor market progress continues broadly as expected, the Committee judges that an increase in the federal funds rate may soon be warranted.
- Unlikely to commit to terms like “gradual” or “measured” to describe the policy tightening outlook: if included they would carry a “strong signal” about the path forward; but MS would not take their absence to carry a signal about the intended hiking pace.
- Press conference: Powell to underscore that every meeting is live.
- Future action: 4 hikes in 2022 (incl March), QT announced in July to begin August. Max caps at $80B ($50B Tsy/ $30B MBS), with scale-up period of just two months (from $40B in Aug).
- March or May meetings may culminate in policy normalization document.
- A 50bp hike “not a likely path for the Fed to take”; rather more likely to hike more frequently.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.