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Morning Summary: 8 NBP Policymakers End Their Term in Early 2022

POLAND
  • Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that he wants every adult citizen over 18 to be able to sign up for vaccination from May 10, so that by August at the latest, every willing citizen shall be vaccinated, according to PAP. PM also said on Monday that Poland may be able to open up a significant part of the economy at the end of May / Early June depending on progress with Covid vaccination.
  • As a reminder, Covid daily cases have started to drop in the past few days after picking up slightly last week. The 7D SMA of daily new cases fell to 15,500 (down from a high of 28.900 on April 1st).
  • While consensus is still pricing NBP to keep policy rates steady through 2022 to maintain financial conditions as loose as possible and therefore stimulate growth after a difficult Q1, some sell side firms are starting to speculate that NBP could hike interest rates in 2022.
  • According to Bloomberg, BNP mentioned in its latest report that the probability of a hike in H2 2022 has increased slightly:
    • First, NBP could follow the global normalization trend in interest rates in 2022 (STIR market is pricing in a hike next year for the US and the UK).
    • Second, 8 NBP members also end their term early next year, which increases the uncertainty over the trajectory of ST interest rates.
  • Next important economic data to watch are the annual growth in average gross wages and employment and PPI, coming all out on April 21.
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