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Morning Summary:  Inflation Risks Are Rising

POLAND
  • The 7D SMA of daily new Covid cases ticked slightly higher by 150 to 4,340 in the past two days but remains very relative to its early April levels (28,900 on April 1st). Poland PM Morawiecki said that the country will reopen cinemas and theatres on May 21, eight days earlier than originally planned.
  • The EC reviewed Poland GDP growth to the upside in its spring forecast, expecting the economic activity to rise by 4% in 2021 (vs. 3.1% previously).
  • We have seen recently that some NBP policymakers have started to express their concern over inflation risks in Poland, expecting CPI inflation to average over 4% in 2021 (much higher than the NBP and sell-side forecasts). Yesterday, NBP policymaker Jerzy Kropiwnicki mentioned that he sees inflation 'above 4% at year-end', with price growth driven by factors outside monetary policy realm.
  • Hence, growing concerns over rising inflationary pressures could increase disagreements over the trajectory of rates in the coming months, and has also been weighing on Polish bonds in the past few weeks.
  • Next data to watch is the Final CPI print and Q1 GDP (expected to fall by 1.4% YoY), both coming out on May 14.
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