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Morning Summary: March Industrial Production Jumps to 16.2% (base effect)

HUNGARY

  • Covid daily new cases continue to decrease with the 7D SMA falling below 1,700 (lowest level since Feb 17), down from 9,300 (March 26 high) and from 2,600 the previous week. The number of people who received at least one dose of the Covid vaccine is approaching 4.2 million (over 40% of the population) this week, which has led to a gradual reopening of the economy.
  • Shortly after Hungarian Finance Minister Mihaly Varga filed the 2022 draft budget to parliament on Tuesday (with gvt targeting 5.2% growth in 2022 with 5.9% deficit), opposition party LMP deputy leader Antal Csardi told at an online press conference that the current ruling party Fidesz continues to 'favor its cronies' instead of helping the real economy and reboost the small and medium sized enterprises. The EU recovery fund, which is expected to contribute 8.5bn EUR for Hungary (10% of the budget), will generate a growth rate of 5.3% alone in 2022, implying that Hungary would fall into recession in 2022 without EU stimulus. To reduce the disparity between the haves and haves not, LMP proposes a progressive taxation system, which would leave more money in the pockets of low-income people and only increase the burden of those earning over 700,000 forints a month.
  • This morning, March retail sales came in 'higher' than expected at -2% YoY (vs. -5.3% exp.) and up from -5.9% the previous month. In addition, industrial production jumped to 16.2% in March (vs. 15.2% exp.), mostly due to the base effect.
  • The NBH is expected to keep its 1W deposit rate steady at 0.75% at its weekly meeting today.
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