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Risk Appetite Gains Momentum


Bears Watch for Close Below 20-Day EMA


Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup


Bulls Need Close North of 20-day EMA

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  • Covid daily new cases continue to drop with the 7D SMA falling from 20,400 to 12,700 in the past 7 days. Polish officials will present a detailed plan for reopening sectors such as restaurants and hotels next Wednesday; however, restrictions will be lifted gradually as levels of hospitalizations and deaths remain high.
  • Yesterday, we saw that March retail sales surged more than expected to 17.1% (vs. 12.5%), while construction fell by 10.8% (vs. 9.7% exp).
  • Today, annual change in March money supply (M3) will be released at 1pm (London time), expected to ease to 14.1% from 16.3% the previous month.
  • Next important economic data to watch is the preliminary CPI coming out on April 30; policymakers have recently mentioned several times that inflationary pressures could continue to rise in the short term and that April CPI could reach 4% YoY in April (diverging significantly from the 3.5% NBP upper tolerance band).

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