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Most USD/Asia Pairs Higher, China Data Prints Out Tomorrow


USD/Asia pairs are mostly higher today, in line with a modest recovery in the USD against the majors. Firmer US yields have aided the USD, while the stronger regional equity tone hasn't impacted sentiment. Tomorrow, we have China Q3 GDP and September activity prints. The market looks for similar outcomes to recent prints Q3 GDP and key acivity prints.

  • USD/CNH is close to Monday session highs, the pair last around 7.3180 (Monday highs near 7.3195). A break above 7.3200 could see early October highs targeted. Onshore spot sits lower, last near 7.3130, note that the topside cap in spot (+2% above the fixing level) is 7.3232 today. Broader USD sentiment is firmer, with the BBDXY up 0.10%. Higher US yields providing some support. US-CH yield differentials have ticked higher, with the US leg of this spread continuing to dominate trends.
  • 1 month USD/KRW has seen little further downside in the first part of Tuesday trade. The pair was last near 1350.5, around +0.30% above Monday NY closing levels. This comes despite a better onshore equity backdrop, with the Kospi up nearly 1% in the first part of trade today. Broader USD sentiment (ex AUD) has stabilized, which is likely working against the won, while USD/CNH also remains close to recent highs. There also remains little foreign sponsorship of a modestly firmer equity backdrop, see the chart below. Rolling 1 month changes in Kospi and MSCI IT index are comfortably off recent lows, but net equity outflows are nearly $3.4bn for the past month, which is back to mid 2022 lows.
  • The SGD NEER (per Goldman Sachs estimates) is little changed in early dealing on Tuesday and remains well within recent ranges. The measure sits ~0.6% below the top of the band. USD/SGD is holding in a narrow range above the 20-Day EMA ($1.3666) as of yet the pair has been unable to sustain a rally above the $1.37 handle. We sit at $1.3690/95. Early into session September Exports crossed, Non-Oil Domestic Exports were stronger than forecast whilst the momentum in Electronic Exports looks to be improving. Looking ahead the local docket is empty for the remainder of the week.
  • The Rupee has opened dealing a touch firmer on Tuesday, USD/INR remains well within recent ranges as moves have had little follow through. USD/INR is ~0.1% below Monday's closing level and last prints at 83.2150/2250. A reminder that the local data docket is empty until 31 October when September Fiscal Deficit and Sep Eight Infrastructure Industries cross.
  • The Ringgit strengthened as much as 0.5% in early trade before paring gains as higher US Tsy Yields and risk off flows weigh. USD/MYR sits at 4.7325/50, ~0.1% below yesterday's closing levels. Support was seen at the 20-Day EMA (4.7120) in early trade. Malaysia has kept its November Export Tax for Crude Palm Oil at 8% and lowered the reference price to MYR3556.08/tonne. The tax has been steady at 8% since January 2021. The export duty structure starts at 3% when prices are in the MYR2,250-2400/tonne range, with the 8% rate kicking in at MYR3,450.
  • USD/PHP remains comfortably within recent ranges. The pair tracked at 56.76 in recent dealings, a touch firmer in PHP terms for the session. This leaves us wedged close to the mid-point of the recent 56.50/57.00 range. The local data calendar remains quiet, with yesterday's August remittances data printing close to expectations (+2.7% y/y, a slight uptick on the prior 2.6% outcome). We get BoP figures on Thursday, but these are not typically a market mover. Note the next key release from a BSP standpoint, October CPI, is due on Nov 7th.
  • USD/THB has remained mostly on the front foot in the first part of today's session. The pair is tracking near 36.45 in recent dealings, around 0.40% weaker in baht terms versus Monday closing levels. This is underperforming some USD weakness seen over the past 24hours or so. The baht has lost 0.75% so far this week, unwinding part of last week's +2.28% gain. Yesterday's sharp local equity pull back (-1.63%), has seen fresh offshore investors outflows (-$80mn for Monday's session), which has likely been a baht headwind. Local equities are tracking higher in early trade today though (SET +0.60%).

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