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Most USD/Asia Pairs Higher, KRW Underperforms


USD/Asia pairs have mostly tracked higher as the Friday session has progressed. The won has been a clear underperformer, despite better data outcomes. USD/CNH dips have been supported, while THB, TWD and IDR have also ground. PHP has outperformed somewhat. Looking ahead to next week, the data calendar doesn't swing back into gear until Tuesday when South Korea CPI prints and more China PMI prints are out.

  • USD/CNH has been supported on dips (7.1319), the pair last tracking neat 7.1475. Onshore equities, in terms of the CSI 300 index, is tracking towards its weakest close since 2019. This comes despite a Caixin PMI beat earlier. This has helped curb earlier USD weakness, while a firmer US yield back has also helped.
  • 1 month USD/KRW has threatened to push back above its 20-day EMA, the pair last near 1303. We had stronger export growth and a decent trade surplus for Nov, while the PMI moved back to 50.0, but this has been offset by equity weakness (-1% for the Kospi) and a firmer USD tone elsewhere.
  • 1 month USD/TWD has climbed higher as well. The pair unable to hold recent breaches sub 31.00. We were last near 31.29, which pits us back above the simple 200-day MA 31.26. The country's PMI improved but still remains sub the 50.0 expansion/contraction point.
  • USD/IDR has maintained a positive footing, with the pair last near 15540, slightly down from session highs. IDR weakness is in line with US yields regaining some composure. We aren't too far away from the 20 and 50-day EMAs. Nov CPI data was close to expectations. headline rose 2.86% y/y (2.7% forecast), while core was near 1.90% for the second straight month.
  • USD/THB has tracked higher, last near 35.24, session highs were 35.34. The Nov PMI suggested little improvement in the soft industrial backdrop. We continue to see Thailand equity outflows (-$160.8mn so far this week). This is helping unwind recent baht outperformance.
  • USD/PHP has drifted lower, away from earlier highs above 55.55. We were last near 55.43. Earlier on the data front, the Nov PMI ticked higher to 52.7 from 52.4, continuing to suggest a reasonable domestic backdrop, albeit off 2022 highs. Next Tuesday delivers Nov CPI data. The BSP expects a further easing from the prior 4.9%y/y outcome, stating late yesterday it has a range estimate of 4.0-4.8%. Note the consensus estimate is 4.3%.

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