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Most USD/Asia Pairs Lower, Aided By US Yield Pull Back

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are mostly trading with a softer tone, although CNH is steady, with weaker local equities and a further downtick in yields in focus. PHP has also bucked the broader trend. A softer US yield backdrop has helped elsewhere though, as has some pockets of equity strength. Steadier oil prices have also been evident. THB has been the strongest performer, while IDR has benefited from hawkish official comments around the local FX. Tomorrow is a busy data day for the region, headlined by China official PMIs for Jan.

  • USD/CNH has tracked recent ranges, the pair last around 7.1880, little changed for the session. Earlier lows were at 7.1810. Onshore equity weakness has been in focus amid fears that the Evergrande liquidation could spill over elsewhere. Local bond yields are also lower. The 10yr yield back to 2.46% per Bloomberg. This multi decade lows, as further easing bets persist.
  • The won has traded with a positive bias, although within contained ranges. The 1 month NDF is back 1330. A further North Korea cruise missile test hasn't disrupted positive sentiment. local equities opened up around +1%, amid a positive lead from US markets, but we have slipped back to +0.15% now. Tomorrow, IP and the cyclical leading index print.
  • THB is firmer, with USD/THB pair pulling back to 35.30. This is around 0.75% stronger in baht terms. We are now back to mid Jan levels, with a softer US yield backdrop likely helping. This continues the baht's volatile run as recent highs rest back at 35.88. Domestic pressure for the BoT to cut continues, while local equities are mostly tracking sideways.
  • USD/IDR is back below 15800, last near 15785, around 0.15% stronger in IDR terms. Comments from both the BI and the FinMin are a likely stronger trend for IDR as 2024 progresses has helped. Later on, the BI stated that it will continued to intervene in the FX market to make the rupiah stable. Last week's break out higher came as we moved above 15700, so this level could be watched on a further downside correction.
  • PHP has underperformed, once again not showing a strong correlation to broader USD/Asia directional trends. USD/PHP sits back above 56.40, around 0.20% weaker in PHP terms. We remain within recent ranges though, with recent highs coming in the 56.50/55 region.

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