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MOVE Nears COVID Peak

US TSY OPTIONS

The combination of stagflation and recessionary worries, resulting in the unwind of Fed rate hike premium/deeper STIR curve inversion, on the back of pricing of deeper Fed rate cuts in ’23, has left the ICE-Bank of America MOVE Index just shy of its ’20 COVID peak. In terms of immediate risk events, the latest ISM services survey will cross later today and provides the next staging post when it comes to judging the health of the U.S. economy. The minutes from the most recent FOMC decision and comments from NY Fed President Williams (permanent voter) are also due on Wednesday. Further Fedspeak from Governor Waller & St. Louis Fed President Bullard (’22 voter) then fill the gap between Wednesday and Friday’s NFP print.


Fig. 1: ICE-Bank of America MOVE Index

Source: MNI - Market News/Bank of America/ICE/Bloomberg

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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