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The Bank of Thailand have released the minutes from their latest monetary policy meeting.

  • On the global economy, policymakers concluded that it "would continue to recover thanks to the progress in COVID-19 vaccination" as well as "continued support from monetary and fiscal policies."
  • Domestically, "the Thai economy would expand at a much lower rate due to more severe impacts of the third-wave outbreak relative to the second. Domestic spending and the recovery of foreign tourist figures would be restrained by containment measures," the MPC said. As a reminder, the latest meeting saw them cut 2021 GDP outlook. On the bright side, "merchandise exports, which improved in all categories and destinations in line with the trading partner economic recovery, would be a major economic driver."
  • "Headline inflation would temporarily increase in the second quarter of 2021 due to the low level of crude oil prices in the same quarter of last year. Medium-term inflation expectations remained anchored within the target."
  • Looking ahead, there remain significant risks to the Thai economy:
    • procurement, distribution and effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines
    • uneven recovery intensified by the recurring outbreak of Covid-19
    • vulnerable financial positions, particularly among SMEs and tourism businesses
    • lack of continuity in fiscal support.
  • Click to see the full edited minutes.