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MPC's Wnorowski Says Inflation Expectations Are Key, Rate Cuts Are Slightly Further Off

POLAND
  • NBP Governor Adam Glapinski said that inflation will likely be around +5.5% Y/Y at the end of the year if the government delivers the proposed modifications to energy relief measures. Core inflation, on the other hand, may stabilise around +4.0% Y/Y in 2H2024, which calls for keeping interest rates at relatively high levels. The Governor guided that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) could discuss re-commenting interest rate cuts if inflation stabilises withing the target (+2.5% Y/Y +/- 1pp) or if such stabilisation is imminent according to the official projection. In his personal view, this could happen in 1Q2025.
  • Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski outlined a more benign inflation scenario, arguing that measures taken by the government will help keep price pressures in check. Domanski suggested that inflation should not exceed +4.0%-4.5% Y/Y at the end of this year and will start cooling gradually thereafter.
  • MPC's Henryk Wnorowski told BIZNES 24 this morning that "the return to interest-rate cuts is moving slightly further away" as the NBP needs to have "certainty about the sustainability of what we have achieved." The policymaker said that inflation expectations are a key factor for him and are not at a satisfactory level yet.
  • President Andrzej Duda will swear in four new ministers during a ceremony today - albeit one will take on an additional portfolio on top of his current role. Tomasz Siemoniak will double as Interior Minister and Minister Coordinator of Special Services, effectively becoming an internal affairs czar.
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