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MS analysts Ellen Zentner, Robert...>

US DATA PREVIEW
US DATA PREVIEW: MS analysts Ellen Zentner, Robert Rosener and Michael Dilmanian
said on the Friday Aug. jobs report that they "expect the labor market to have
generated 180,000 net new jobs in August, with the unemployment rate stable at
4.3% and a 0.2% monthly increase in average hourly earnings, bringing the
year-over-year rate up a notch to 2.6%. These expectations are broadly in line
with consensus. We expect no effect on this report from Hurricane Harvey, which
made landfall late in the month, well after the employment survey period
closed."
- They add that "following 2 months of above-200k prints, we are looking for the
pace of job gains to have eased in August, though to a still-robust pace. A
print of 180k would be in line with the 6-month moving average of gains. We
think the unemployment will hold at its July level of 4.3% on positive
implications for labor force participation and household employment contained in
the consumer confidence data. Moreover, unrounded, the unemployment rate was
4.35% in July so it was not 'on the line' for rounding down."

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