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MS now looks for a "more front-loaded hiking cycle"

BOE
  • "With a tighter labour market and higher inflation pointing to increased inflation risks, we see a more front-loaded hiking cycle, with 25bp hikes in May and August as well, paving the way for a start to active gilt sales this autumn – likely at a comparatively modest pace of £20 billion per year, given uncertainty about the impact." MS had previously expected 2022 hikes in February and November.
  • "Because we expect global forces on inflation to ebb, and UK inflation to moderate, we think that modest active sales next year will imply only two Bank Rate hikes in 2023, taking it to roughly neutral in 2023." MS had previously only expected one hike in 2023. It now looks for end-2023 Bank Rate at 1.50% from 1.00% previously.
  • MS notes that "a fragile growth outlook means that we think risks are skewed towards fewer hikes."

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