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MS Sees 1W Depo Rate at 5.2% by End of March

HUNGARY
  • MS now expect the NBH to continue delivering 50bp of hikes in its base rate in February and March.
  • As inflation starts to decelerate in April and more meaningfully in May, MS analysts think that the NBH will slow the pace of hikes in the base rate to 30bp in 2Q22.
  • At the same time, MS expects the NBH to increase the 1-week deposit rate by 40bp each month in 1Q22 before ceasing to do so in 2Q22.
  • Such a scenario would increase the effective monetary policy rate to 5.20% by end of March, some 30bp higher than MS previous forecast.
  • NBH's forward guidance now seems more consistent with MS expectation for inflation to decelerate by less than what the central bank projected in its December forecast, as core inflation is set to strengthen as a result of the significant 20% minimum wage hike
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