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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
WHITE HOUSE
Kyle Griffin as MSNBC posts on X: "The Harris campaign is ALSO considering Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg as a possible running mate." On the afternoon of 23 July, Griffin posted that the Harris campaign had requested vetting materials from the following Democratic politicians: NC Gov. Roy Cooper, PA Gov. Josh Shapiro, AZ Sen. Mark Kelly, MI Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and MN Gov. Tim Walz. Around 9 hours later, Griffin posts that the Harris campaign is also considering Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.
- This would make Buttigieg the seventh potential VP candidate being vetted by the Harris campaign.
- Political betting markets still have Kelly as the favourite, albeit with his implied probability having sharply dropped since Griffin's post from 38.5% to 31%, with Buttigieg rising from 3.5% to 10.2% implied probability.
- Whereas Trump's VP pick of JD Vance has been viewed as Trump trying to continue the legacy of the 'MAGA movement', it is seen as likely that the Harris campaign is more inclined to pick a VP that will given them a notable election boost in a particular state or with a particular demographic.
- This reinforces Kelly and Shapiro's frontrunner positions given the pivotal natures of Arizona and Pennsylvania in the electoral college contest.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Democrat VP Nominee, %
Source: electionbettingodds.com, Betfair, Predictit, Polymarket, Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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