MUFG Secs Americas strategist John....>

US DATA REACT: MUFG Secs Americas strategist John Herrmann said on Sept jobs

that "Harvey & Irma had the worst all-time on Payrolls for any Hurricane." He

adds -33K Sept. NFP jobs outcome "nearly matched our "stress-tested" forecast

(of -17.2K mom)."

- But he said "the 'Not at Work Bad Weather' was near the worse ALL-Time for

official data going back to 1976. A total of 4.408 Mln individuals reported

missing EITHER a full-workweek or a partial-workwk;" that included: "Not at work

Bad Weather full workwk of 1,474K versus high of 1,846K (Jan. 1996 Eastern

Seaboard Blizzard, esp. New York City)"; also "Not at work Bad Weather partial

workwk of 2,934K versus all-time high of 10,433K (Jan. 1996 Blizzard)."

- He said MUFG expects "sizeable bounceback" in Oct. nonfarm payrolls (possibly

near +287K mom) and in November and December. As that nonfarm payroll data is

published, along with the LOW U3 unemployment rate and the resilient average

hourly wage growth, our models continue to forecast a 83.7% chance of a Dec.

12-13 short-end interest rate hike of 25 bps from the FOMC vs forward mkts

probability of 69.9%."