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Muted Action in G10 FX, GBP Softer Following BOE

FOREX
  • G10 FX broadly held narrow ranges on Thursday. Initial greenback weakness overall was pared approaching the London WMR fix, leaving the dollar index unchanged from Wednesday's close.
  • GBPUSD was sold down below 1.39 following the Bank of England decision and statement. It said growing inflation would surpass 3% as the UK economy reopens, but the climb further above its 2% target would only be "temporary". There are little signs in the minutes or statement that the MPC is considering an early end to QE, potentially weighing on Sterling, currently down 0.31%.
  • For cable, our technical team still see a bearish threat present with GBPUSD trading through the 100-DMA, reinforcing current negative conditions. Scope is seen for an extension lower towards 1.3717, Apr 14 low.
  • The strongest performers were SEK and NOK, firming roughly 0.35% with the latter benefitting from oil prices continuing to consolidate gains, following the recent strong rally.
  • Emerging market currency indices continued to unwind the post FOMC losses, with notable moves in MXN (+1.28%), BRL (+1.14%) and RUB (+0.56%). The JPMorgan EM CCY index rose 0.35%.
  • The main data point for Friday will be the US PCE and personal income/spending figures for May, followed by Uni of Michigan Sentiment data to close out the week.
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