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AUSTRALIA: NAB and ANZ Views on November CPI Data Due Wednesday

AUSTRALIA
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  • **NAB pencil in 2.4% y/y from 2.1% for the CPI Indicator (consensus 2.2%), driven by electricity. Beyond the noisiness of subsidy timing in electricity, key things to watch are the handful of market services prices measured in November, and whether New Dwellings sustains its recent step-down in inflation. Volatile international travel is also shaping up to be influential for the trimmed mean in Q4.
  • **ANZ expect annual inflation in the monthly CPI indicator to lift to 2.3% y/y in November from 2.1% y/y in October. The ‘all groups excluding volatile items (fuel and fruit & veg) and holiday travel’ figure is forecast to edge up to 2.5% y/y from 2.4% y/y. During the month, ANZ expect the headline indicator to rise 0.5%m/m, a little above last November’s 0.3% m/m rise.
    • The November data will have more information on services and non-tradables than the October reading and give us a better gauge of the critical Q4 CPI print scheduled for 29 January ahead of the next RBA Board meeting on 17-18 February.
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  • **NAB pencil in 2.4% y/y from 2.1% for the CPI Indicator (consensus 2.2%), driven by electricity. Beyond the noisiness of subsidy timing in electricity, key things to watch are the handful of market services prices measured in November, and whether New Dwellings sustains its recent step-down in inflation. Volatile international travel is also shaping up to be influential for the trimmed mean in Q4.
  • **ANZ expect annual inflation in the monthly CPI indicator to lift to 2.3% y/y in November from 2.1% y/y in October. The ‘all groups excluding volatile items (fuel and fruit & veg) and holiday travel’ figure is forecast to edge up to 2.5% y/y from 2.4% y/y. During the month, ANZ expect the headline indicator to rise 0.5%m/m, a little above last November’s 0.3% m/m rise.
    • The November data will have more information on services and non-tradables than the October reading and give us a better gauge of the critical Q4 CPI print scheduled for 29 January ahead of the next RBA Board meeting on 17-18 February.