NAB: AUD/USD Fair Value Model Estimate Rose By $0.08 In Feb

NAB note that their "AUD/USD fair value model estimate rose by $0.08 in February, ending the month at $0.78. Meanwhile, after briefly trading above $0.80 on February 25, spot ended the month at $0.7704, leaving the AUD/USD comfortably inside its fair value trading range. In February, the rates component was a big contributor for the move up in the model estimate, on account of the widening of AU-U.S. rates spreads along the term structure. Despite a volatile environment, commodities still provided a positive contribution to the model estimate while the spike in risk aversion, particularly in the latter part of the month, was a detraction, accounting for about half a cent of the model change during February."