NAB Look For Firmer Than Consensus Labour Market Report

Ahead of today’s labour market report NAB “expect the data to confirm a still tight labour market backdrop and pencil in employment growth of 30k and the unemployment rate to hold at 3.5%. February data showed employment growth rebounded 65k after a couple of negative employment prints in December and a seasonally affected January and the unemployment rate fell back to 3.5%. Our assessment is that data confirmed the labour market remains tight, though likely a little less so than 6 months ago. Despite the rebound in employment, on a trend basis employment slowed to 20k, below the 25k per month needed to keep pace with rapid population growth. Our internal data suggest an underlying run rate a little stronger than that.”