NAB/SEEK: Job Ads Continue To Show Early Signs Of Flattening

NAB note that “SEEK new job ads fell -3.1% m/m in July, the second consecutive month of decline. Last month we noted the decline in new job ads may signal a peak in labour demand at very elevated levels amid difficulty finding suitable labour, although it was too early to tell. The decline in July adds support to that thesis, though the level of job ads is still 60.6% above pre-pandemic levels.”

• “Declines were broad-based across industries with 24 out of 30 sub-sectors seeing consecutive monthly falls. The largest decline in July was again in the hospitality & tourism industry (-30% m/m after -10% in June). Consistent with activity peaking in building and the impact of higher rates biting, industries associated with housing also saw sizeable falls (design and architecture -14.1% m/m; real estate and property -5.4% m/m; trades and services -4.1% m/m). Interestingly, science & technology (+7.4%) and engineering (+3.1%) bucked the trend.”
• “By state declines were broad based with the largest in NT (-10%), followed by VIC (-7%) and WA (-5%). ACT and QLD both posted falls of -4%, whilst TAS and NSW each had declines of -2%. SA had the smallest m/m decline of -1%, albeit still negative.”
• “Applications per ad (reported with a one-month lag) declined again in June (-1%) continuing to point to a still-tightening labour market. The number of applicants per ad was down 29% from June 2021 levels.”