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Nagel: ECB Rates Must Rise Significantly

ECB
  • Nagel tells Süddeutsche that ECB rates must rise significantly, with the ECB needing to send clear signals at the next meeting.
  • ECB-dated OIS shows a 70bp hike priced for the Oct 27 decision with a cumulative 132bps to 1.98% by year-end.
  • Nagel sees inflation threatening growth more than rates hikes, with the German growth outlook looking weak: the German economy probably shrank slightly in Q3, worsened in Q4 and with economic contraction probably also at start of 2023 and could also slightly contract in 2023 as a whole but it probably.
  • Other Bloomberg headlines:
  • *NAGEL: FIGHTING HIGH INFLATION REQUIRES STRONG, FAST REACTION
  • *NAGEL: GERMAN INFLATION PROBABLY AT OR ABOVE 6% IN 2023
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