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NAHB Falls Below Break-Even For First Time Since May'20

US DATA
  • NAHB homebuilder sentiment surprisingly fell from 55 to 49 in August, having only been weaker - and below the key break-even measure of 50 - for Apr-May'20 of the pandemic, and prior to the pandemic at lows since May'14.
  • The rate of decline slows after the particularly sharp drop in July but is more broad-based by region this time.
  • "Ongoing growth in construction costs and high mortgage rates [the main driver] continue to weaken market sentiment for single-family home builders”... “And in a troubling sign that consumers are now sitting on the sidelines due to higher housing costs, the August buyer traffic number in our builder survey was 32, the lowest level since April 2014 with the exception of the spring of 2020 when the pandemic first hit.”
  • "Roughly one-in-five (19%) home builders in the HMI survey reported reducing prices in the past month to increase sales or limit cancellations" with a median of -5%.
  • Surprisingly little impact in front end Treasuries from weaker house price growth implications, with the 2YY almost unchanged since the release but then it's still -5bps following the earlier rally on a very large miss in the NY Fed Empire manufacturing index.
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