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NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment Continues Rapid Decline

US DATA
  • The NAHB housing market index surprisingly fell from 46 to 38 (cons 43) in October.
  • It has fallen every month this year to the lowest since May’20 and before that 2012, with a similarly grim read for prospective homebuyer traffic at the lowest since the post-GFC lows when excluding Apr’20.
  • There have previously been drops in homebuying interest related to sharp increases in mortgage rates/Fed tightening (94-95, 98-00, and to some extend 05-06), but this one is on a whole other scale.
  • SPX homebuilder price to book ratios has been adjusting downwards through the cycle but continue to have room to fall, whilst the current level of housing starts looks particularly elevated against historically depressed sentiment, the implication being a further drag from residential investment on GDP growth.

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