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NAHB Housing Index Surprisingly Slips In May, Higher Rates and Energy Codes Cited

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  • The NAHB housing market index surprisingly fell to 45 (cons 50) in May from 51, for its lowest since January.
  • There was a 4pt decline in prospective buyer traffic (to 30, lowest since Jan), a 6pt decline in present sales (to 51, lowest since Jan) and a 9pt decline in future sales (to 51, lowest since Dec).
  • Regionally, the overall index decline was led by the West (-12pts, largest decline since Jul’22), followed by the Northeast (-7pts), South (-5pts) and Midwest (-1pt).
  • Broader homebuilder sentiment remains notably at odds with S&P 500 homebuilder price to book ratios.
  • “We are also concerned about the recent codes rules that require HUD and USDA to insure mortgages for new single-family homes only if they are built to the 2021 International Energy Conservation Code. This will further increase the cost of construction in a market that sorely needs more inventory for first-time and first-generation buyers.” – NAHB Chairman Carl Harris.
  • “The last leg in the inflation fight is to reduce shelter inflation, and this can only occur if builders are able to construct more attainable, affordable housing.” – NAHB Chief Econ Robert Dietz
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  • The NAHB housing market index surprisingly fell to 45 (cons 50) in May from 51, for its lowest since January.
  • There was a 4pt decline in prospective buyer traffic (to 30, lowest since Jan), a 6pt decline in present sales (to 51, lowest since Jan) and a 9pt decline in future sales (to 51, lowest since Dec).
  • Regionally, the overall index decline was led by the West (-12pts, largest decline since Jul’22), followed by the Northeast (-7pts), South (-5pts) and Midwest (-1pt).
  • Broader homebuilder sentiment remains notably at odds with S&P 500 homebuilder price to book ratios.
  • “We are also concerned about the recent codes rules that require HUD and USDA to insure mortgages for new single-family homes only if they are built to the 2021 International Energy Conservation Code. This will further increase the cost of construction in a market that sorely needs more inventory for first-time and first-generation buyers.” – NAHB Chairman Carl Harris.
  • “The last leg in the inflation fight is to reduce shelter inflation, and this can only occur if builders are able to construct more attainable, affordable housing.” – NAHB Chief Econ Robert Dietz