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Narrow Ranges Before US CPI; 10Y Supply and FOMC Minutes Also Eyed

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsy yields sit between unchanged to 0.5bps lower, holding tight ranges ahead of US CPI in a consolidation of yesterday’s rally.
  • TYM4 is currently at 109-21+ (+ 01) having kept to particularly narrow 109-19+ to 109-23 so far. Cumulative volumes are unsurprisingly below average at 235k, a change from some heavy overnight sessions in recent days.
  • Resistance is seen at 110-06 (Apr 4 high) but gains are considered corrective with support at the round 109-00 before 108-25+ (Fibo projection).
  • CPI clearly headlines today’s docket (preview here) before 10Y supply and then the FOMC minutes. 10Y supply offers a look at the longer end after yesterday’s poorly received 3Y auction.
  • Data: Weekly MBA mortgage data (0700ET), CPI Mar (0830ET), Real earnings Mar (0830ET), Monthly budget statement Mar (1400ET)
  • Fedspeak: Bowman on Basel capital requirements (0845ET), Goolsbee & Barkin in full employment discussion (1245ET), FOMC minutes (1400ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $39B 10Y Note auction re-open (91282CJZ5) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W Bill auction – 1130ET
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  • Cash Tsy yields sit between unchanged to 0.5bps lower, holding tight ranges ahead of US CPI in a consolidation of yesterday’s rally.
  • TYM4 is currently at 109-21+ (+ 01) having kept to particularly narrow 109-19+ to 109-23 so far. Cumulative volumes are unsurprisingly below average at 235k, a change from some heavy overnight sessions in recent days.
  • Resistance is seen at 110-06 (Apr 4 high) but gains are considered corrective with support at the round 109-00 before 108-25+ (Fibo projection).
  • CPI clearly headlines today’s docket (preview here) before 10Y supply and then the FOMC minutes. 10Y supply offers a look at the longer end after yesterday’s poorly received 3Y auction.
  • Data: Weekly MBA mortgage data (0700ET), CPI Mar (0830ET), Real earnings Mar (0830ET), Monthly budget statement Mar (1400ET)
  • Fedspeak: Bowman on Basel capital requirements (0845ET), Goolsbee & Barkin in full employment discussion (1245ET), FOMC minutes (1400ET)
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $39B 10Y Note auction re-open (91282CJZ5) – 1300ET
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $60B 17W Bill auction – 1130ET