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Narrowing Rate Differentials Aid Recovery, RBNZs Conway On Tap

AUDNZD

Narrowing rate differentials, observed via 2 year swap rates, have aided a bounce in AUD/NZD off year to date lows. The pair has risen 1.3% since printing a 2023 low on Monday before marginally paring gains.

  • Rate differentials, which were at cycle lows, narrowed this week to from -160bps to -140bps. RBNZ terminal rate expectation in OIS markets has ticked ~14bps lower through the week to sit at 5.18%.
  • $1.08 has presented as resistance in recent dealing, bulls first look to sustain a break of the handle. From here they can target the 200-Day EMA at $1.0896.
  • Bears look to break low from 20 March ($1.0667), from here they can target 2022 lows at $1.0471.
  • RBNZ Chief Economist Conway is on the wires this morning, he is scheduled to speak about the path to low inflation in New Zealand.
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