Nate Silver Forecast Returns To Toss-Up Amid Strong PA Polling For Harris

Election analyst Nate Silver's 2024 forecast model has returned to a toss-up following a string of polls showing favourable results for Vice President Kamala Harris in the key swing state of Pennsylvania.

• A highly anticipated New York Times/Siena College poll threw out a counterintuitive set of results, with Harris leading Trump by four points in Pennsylvania but tied with Trump in the national vote. NYT pollster Nate Cohen described the results as, “a bit of a puzzle.”
• Cohen speculates that the Siena College survey might support a theory that Harris is overperforming in the Northern swing states compared to the national vote. If the polling is accurate, it could dimmish Trump's Electoral College advantage and significantly bolster Harris’ chances of winning in November.
• Cohen argues that recent polling data, when filtered to remove low-quality outlets, shows: “There are a lot of good polls for Mr. Trump nationally, and a lot of polls showing Ms. Harris doing relatively well in the Northern battleground states like Pennsylvania.”
• A Quinnipiac survey, released yesterday, shows Harris up by six points in Pennsylvania and five points in Michigan - two of her strongest polls in the two Rust Belt swing states.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Forecast