Free Trial
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Election analyst Nate Silver's polling averageshows that Vice President Kamala Harris has improved on President Biden's polling numbers by, "somewhere between 3.9 points and 8.5 points in literally every swing state — and by more than 7 points nationally."
- Silver notes on X: "...while some of the other polling averages out there are great too, ours is a little more aggressive & often the quickest to pick up on trends."
- Silver draws two conclusions from the polling data: Firstly, that "Harris’s largest gains have come in Arizona, which supports the theory that her relative strengths are in the Sunbelt rather than the Rust Belt."
- Secondly, on whether Harris faces a larger Electoral College-popular vote gap than Biden because "her relative gains over Biden are larger in national polls than in most of the swing states."
- Silver notes: "Actually not. While that was true when we first relaunched the model, Harris now actually has a smaller gap than Biden. In simulations where Harris wins the popular vote between 1 and 2 percentage points, for instance, we have her winning the Electoral College 51 percent of the time, versus 34 percent in the final Biden forecast."
- For context, the New York Times polling average, which relies more heavily on data from "select pollsters", ticked up today to Harris 49-47% after a week showing Harris leading Trump 48-47%, despite a raft of positive polling for Harris.
Figure 1: National and State-Level Polling Averages
Source: Nate Silver/Silver Bulletin
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
We are facing technical issues, please contact our team.
ok
Your request was sent sucessfully! Our team will contact you soon.
ok