Nate Silver's Election Forecast Bullish On Trump

Highly regarded elections analyst, Nate Silver, has released his anticipated 2024 presidential election model, forecasting former President Donald Trump a 66% implied probability of winning the presidential election in November.

• Silver's model is notably more bullish than the new model created by his former firm 538, which favours Biden on fundamentals like the economy, and rates the race a toss-up.
• Silver noted in analysis of the model: “When the model was finally done on Sunday night, it turned out that Trump was favored by a slightly larger degree than I’d anticipated at Manifest — although Biden retains highly viable paths to victory.”
• Silver notes that the "glass-half-full view of the race," which underpins the fundamentals-driven 538 model rests on assumptions that, "an incumbent usually wins in a decent economy," and that, "the polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin show a tossup, and therefore the Electoral College is a tossup."
• As the election draws nearer, Silver's model will be heavily referenced by pundits and strategists looking for data-driven insights with a strong track record.

Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Forecast