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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US
Highly regarded elections analyst, Nate Silver, has released his anticipated 2024 presidential election model, forecasting former President Donald Trump a 66% implied probability of winning the presidential election in November.
- Silver's model is notably more bullish than the new model created by his former firm 538, which favours Biden on fundamentals like the economy, and rates the race a toss-up.
- Silver noted in analysis of the model: “When the model was finally done on Sunday night, it turned out that Trump was favored by a slightly larger degree than I’d anticipated at Manifest — although Biden retains highly viable paths to victory.”
- Silver notes that the "glass-half-full view of the race," which underpins the fundamentals-driven 538 model rests on assumptions that, "an incumbent usually wins in a decent economy," and that, "the polls in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin show a tossup, and therefore the Electoral College is a tossup."
- As the election draws nearer, Silver's model will be heavily referenced by pundits and strategists looking for data-driven insights with a strong track record.
Figure 1: 2024 Presidential Election Forecast
Source: Nate Silver/Silverbulletin
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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