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NATGAS: China Gas Surplus Possible from 2025-2030: Cnooc

NATGAS
Energy BulletsBulletPower BulletsCommodities

A China gas surplus is expected from 2025-2030 due to rising Russian supply, stable longer term contracted LNG and increased domestic production, according to Cnooc research cited by Bloomberg. In 2025, supply of 450bcm/year could exceed demand of 430bcm.

  • Overall supply from Russia could rise to 53bcm/year by 2029 including volumes via the Far East route. Power of Siberia 1 pipeline volumes could rise above the contracted 38bcm/year to 46bcm/year by 2025.
  • There is no supply deal yet between Russia and China for Power of Siberia 2, but the link could boost supply from 2030.
  • Central Asia supply could rise from 40bcm to 65bcm/year by 2030 with the start of operation of Line D scheduled for 2026.
  • New LNG import terminals raising capacity to 260m tons/ year from 50 facilities by 2030 could support long-term LNG contracts up from ~80m tons/year in 2025 to 100m tons by 2030.
  • Domestic production is expected to rise by 4%-5% per year through 2030 to 320bcm.

 

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A China gas surplus is expected from 2025-2030 due to rising Russian supply, stable longer term contracted LNG and increased domestic production, according to Cnooc research cited by Bloomberg. In 2025, supply of 450bcm/year could exceed demand of 430bcm.

  • Overall supply from Russia could rise to 53bcm/year by 2029 including volumes via the Far East route. Power of Siberia 1 pipeline volumes could rise above the contracted 38bcm/year to 46bcm/year by 2025.
  • There is no supply deal yet between Russia and China for Power of Siberia 2, but the link could boost supply from 2030.
  • Central Asia supply could rise from 40bcm to 65bcm/year by 2030 with the start of operation of Line D scheduled for 2026.
  • New LNG import terminals raising capacity to 260m tons/ year from 50 facilities by 2030 could support long-term LNG contracts up from ~80m tons/year in 2025 to 100m tons by 2030.
  • Domestic production is expected to rise by 4%-5% per year through 2030 to 320bcm.

 

Keep reading...Show less