Natgas End of Day Summary: TTF Reverses Losses

TTF edges back up to positive on the day with supply risks adding to near term support while tight supply concerns continue to support winter 23 and beyond.

• TTF SEP 23 up 1.8% at 31.05€/MWh
• TTF WIN 23 up 0.8% at 46.2€/MWh
• TTF SUM 24 up 0.8% at 48.91€/MWh
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated up at 329.9mcm/d today but still below levels up near 340mcm/d seen at the end of July. Supplies are expected to drop again later this month with another period of seasonal maintenance.
• Total European gas in store is above the five year range up to 87.39% full on a 6 Aug according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year is 73%.
• LNG sendout to Europe continues to decline to the lowest since 2021 down to 267mcm/d on 6 Aug according to data via Bloomberg.
• Near term US LNG exports remain more profitable to deliver to Asia than Europe. More US LNG shipments are heading toward Asia instead of Europe amid higher demand from India and China, while European stockpiles are almost full ahead of the winter already, widening the price gap
• US LNG exports are currently more profitable to Asia in September, October and November. The gas price spread between Asia and Europe is $1.24/MMBtu in September.
• JKM-TTF Sep 23 down 0$/mmbtu at 1.03$/mmbtu
• Volumes of LNG on the water for at least 20 days increased 1.6% in the week ending Aug. 6 to 3.0m tons.
• China’s government-controlled Zhejiang Energy Group received its first LNG cargo at its new 3m mtpa Wenzhou LNG terminal in Wenzhou city on 7 August according to S&P Global Commodity Insights.
• NG Japan has agreed a deal for a stake in a giant offshore natural gas project in Australia, as it looks to secure gas supplies, according to Bloomberg.