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NATGAS: Gas Rally Focus on Europe Amid Inelastic Supply/Demand: Timera

NATGAS
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The Q4 gas price rally is focused on drivers in Europe amid a structurally tight LNG and European gas market regime across 2024-25, according to Timera Energy.

  • Relatively inelastic global supply and demand lead to upside price risk from recovery in demand expectations.
  • The threat of further Russian supply cut risks via Ukraine have combined with a colder start to winter and softer wind conditions, supporting power sector gas demand and depleting storage faster than last year.
  • Bearish / underweight market sentiment and positioning from weak demand fundamentals this year have added to the rally.
  • The back end of the forward curve and volatility is held down by a new LNG supply wave ramping up from 2026.

 

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The Q4 gas price rally is focused on drivers in Europe amid a structurally tight LNG and European gas market regime across 2024-25, according to Timera Energy.

  • Relatively inelastic global supply and demand lead to upside price risk from recovery in demand expectations.
  • The threat of further Russian supply cut risks via Ukraine have combined with a colder start to winter and softer wind conditions, supporting power sector gas demand and depleting storage faster than last year.
  • Bearish / underweight market sentiment and positioning from weak demand fundamentals this year have added to the rally.
  • The back end of the forward curve and volatility is held down by a new LNG supply wave ramping up from 2026.

 

Keep reading...Show less