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NATGAS: Henry Hub Maintains Bull Rally to Highest Since Mid June

NATGAS
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Henry Hub is maintaining the bullish trend in place since August with front month rising to the highest since June 14. Supports comes from above normal demand, a declining US stocks surplus ahead of winter and global supply risks from Middle East conflict escalation, although low LNG exports are limiting gains.

  • Feedgas flow to US LNG export terminals are today estimated unchanged on the day at 11.76bcf/d, Bloomberg shows. Supply is below the previous week average of 12.1bcf/d due to a drop in Sabine Pass LNG supply by about 0.6bcf/d below normal.
  • Domestic natural gas demand is still above the seasonal five year average at 70.9bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg. The weather forecast shows temperatures for the lower 48 states following the seasonal trend lower but remaining above normal through the coming two weeks. NOAA shows near normal on the east coast but above normal elsewhere in the 6-14 day period.
  • US domestic natural gas production was holding relatively steady having averaged 100.8bcf/d in the week to Oct. 1, according to Bloomberg.
  • Export flows to Mexico are today estimated at 6.4bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volume was 440k on Oct. 1.
    • US Natgas NOV 24 up 2.3% at 2.96$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas DEC 24 up 1.6% at 3.34$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas OCT 25 up 0.2% at 3.4$/mmbtu
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Henry Hub is maintaining the bullish trend in place since August with front month rising to the highest since June 14. Supports comes from above normal demand, a declining US stocks surplus ahead of winter and global supply risks from Middle East conflict escalation, although low LNG exports are limiting gains.

  • Feedgas flow to US LNG export terminals are today estimated unchanged on the day at 11.76bcf/d, Bloomberg shows. Supply is below the previous week average of 12.1bcf/d due to a drop in Sabine Pass LNG supply by about 0.6bcf/d below normal.
  • Domestic natural gas demand is still above the seasonal five year average at 70.9bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg. The weather forecast shows temperatures for the lower 48 states following the seasonal trend lower but remaining above normal through the coming two weeks. NOAA shows near normal on the east coast but above normal elsewhere in the 6-14 day period.
  • US domestic natural gas production was holding relatively steady having averaged 100.8bcf/d in the week to Oct. 1, according to Bloomberg.
  • Export flows to Mexico are today estimated at 6.4bcf/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volume was 440k on Oct. 1.
    • US Natgas NOV 24 up 2.3% at 2.96$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas DEC 24 up 1.6% at 3.34$/mmbtu
    • US Natgas OCT 25 up 0.2% at 3.4$/mmbtu