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NATGAS: Natgas Calendar Year Spreads Narrow amid Supply Doubts: Platts

NATGAS
Energy BulletsBulletPower BulletsCommodities

Uncertainty around upcoming supply booms in the next few years has kept market sentiment through 2027 more bullish than previously expected, Platts sad.

  • This has pressured inter-year spreads for global natural gas and LNG.
  • The JKM Cal-25/26 spread stood at $1.156/MMBtu, lower than the $1.516/MMBtu seen this time in 2023.
  • JKM’s Cal-26/27 is $1.732/MMBtu, compared to $2.833/MMBtu in Sep. 2023.
  • TTF spreads have also tightened compared to last year.
  • Sentiment is being weighed on down the curve amid uncertainty over expected supply increases from major projects in the US and Qatar, which could become the source of over 50% of LNG supply.
  • Around 5 LNG projects are currently under construction in the US, bringing online 9.7 bcf/d, some of which could come online in 2024. However, the delays at Golden Pass LNG have tightened up supply outlooks.
  • Qatar’s North Field is set to come online in 2026 with 32m mtpa from four trains. Qatar’s output should go from 77m mtpa to 142m mtpa by 2030.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
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Uncertainty around upcoming supply booms in the next few years has kept market sentiment through 2027 more bullish than previously expected, Platts sad.

  • This has pressured inter-year spreads for global natural gas and LNG.
  • The JKM Cal-25/26 spread stood at $1.156/MMBtu, lower than the $1.516/MMBtu seen this time in 2023.
  • JKM’s Cal-26/27 is $1.732/MMBtu, compared to $2.833/MMBtu in Sep. 2023.
  • TTF spreads have also tightened compared to last year.
  • Sentiment is being weighed on down the curve amid uncertainty over expected supply increases from major projects in the US and Qatar, which could become the source of over 50% of LNG supply.
  • Around 5 LNG projects are currently under construction in the US, bringing online 9.7 bcf/d, some of which could come online in 2024. However, the delays at Golden Pass LNG have tightened up supply outlooks.
  • Qatar’s North Field is set to come online in 2026 with 32m mtpa from four trains. Qatar’s output should go from 77m mtpa to 142m mtpa by 2030.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights