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NATGAS: New Gas Deals Could Offset Some Ukraine Transit Loss: Morgan Stanley

NATGAS
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Small new gas supply deals negotiated by central and eastern European countries with Azerbaijan and via the TurkStream pipeline could partially offset the current 40mcm/d Ukraine transit supply loss expected at year end, according to Morgan Stanley cited by Bloomberg.

  • The OMV cut “likely reduces the supply of gas sold spot into the European market and tightens European balances further.” OMV’s contract with Gazprom is approximately 15mcm/d and represents around 40% of remaining Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine.
  • Slovakia’s SPP has signed a pilot deal for supplies from Azerbaijan which could replace a portion of a 3bcm/year contract with Gazprom. The gas could be transported through the Trans-Balkan pipeline then across Romania and Hungary, or through the TAP pipeline and then via Italy and Austria.
  • “We now assume this deal will send 4mcm/d of gas to Slovakia that will carry on through next year, replacing ~50% of lost Russian flows to the country.”  
  • Southern Gas Corridor capacity constraints will limit flows while TAP may accommodate extra flows to Slovakia following expansion work.
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Small new gas supply deals negotiated by central and eastern European countries with Azerbaijan and via the TurkStream pipeline could partially offset the current 40mcm/d Ukraine transit supply loss expected at year end, according to Morgan Stanley cited by Bloomberg.

  • The OMV cut “likely reduces the supply of gas sold spot into the European market and tightens European balances further.” OMV’s contract with Gazprom is approximately 15mcm/d and represents around 40% of remaining Russian gas flows to Europe via Ukraine.
  • Slovakia’s SPP has signed a pilot deal for supplies from Azerbaijan which could replace a portion of a 3bcm/year contract with Gazprom. The gas could be transported through the Trans-Balkan pipeline then across Romania and Hungary, or through the TAP pipeline and then via Italy and Austria.
  • “We now assume this deal will send 4mcm/d of gas to Slovakia that will carry on through next year, replacing ~50% of lost Russian flows to the country.”  
  • Southern Gas Corridor capacity constraints will limit flows while TAP may accommodate extra flows to Slovakia following expansion work.