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NATGAS: Small LNG Market Long in Oct to Ease Supply Pressure: ICIS

NATGAS
Energy BulletsBulletPower BulletsCommodities

The global LNG market is forecast to be 0.1m tonnes long in October, according to ICIS to ease pressure on global supply margins after heat waves in Asia and Norwegian maintenance.

  • European gas storage is expected up to 98% full by end October and 0.5 percentage point below last year.
  • October is expected to be colder than last year leading to a 29% y/y rise in re-com demand for the 12 major hubs in western and central Europe and 5% above the 5-year average, according to ICIS Gas Foresight.
  • European industrial demand is expected to rise 24% m/m in October but remain 13% below the five year average. Year to date industrial demand is 5% higher than 2023.
  • Norwegian gas supplies will be less constrained than last month but still restricted by capacity reductions of 28.6mcm/d for much of the month, Gassco shows.
  • EU LNG sendout is forecast to increase 43% m/m but only 2% higher y/y. France’s Montoir LNG regasification rates will be cut by up to 15% over October but Fos Cavaou will slowly come back online after cuts of 20% until 4 October.
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The global LNG market is forecast to be 0.1m tonnes long in October, according to ICIS to ease pressure on global supply margins after heat waves in Asia and Norwegian maintenance.

  • European gas storage is expected up to 98% full by end October and 0.5 percentage point below last year.
  • October is expected to be colder than last year leading to a 29% y/y rise in re-com demand for the 12 major hubs in western and central Europe and 5% above the 5-year average, according to ICIS Gas Foresight.
  • European industrial demand is expected to rise 24% m/m in October but remain 13% below the five year average. Year to date industrial demand is 5% higher than 2023.
  • Norwegian gas supplies will be less constrained than last month but still restricted by capacity reductions of 28.6mcm/d for much of the month, Gassco shows.
  • EU LNG sendout is forecast to increase 43% m/m but only 2% higher y/y. France’s Montoir LNG regasification rates will be cut by up to 15% over October but Fos Cavaou will slowly come back online after cuts of 20% until 4 October.