Natgas Summary: TTF Surges to Early-July High

European TTF gas extends the rally to the highest level since 3 July up from a front month low of 25.5€/MWh at the end of Jul amid ongoing supply risks from Norway, Russia and possible disruptions to global LNG supplies amid planned strike action in Australia.

• TTF SEP 23 up 17.6% at 36.54€/MWh
• NBP SEP 23 up 18.8% at 92.85p/th
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated up at 336.9mcm/d today as output recovers towards the volumes seen in late July. Output is expected to drop next week with further maintenance works planned at fields such as Troll and Ormen Lange according to Gassco.
• Ormen Lange gas works with a capacity reduction of 19.3mcm/d have been delayed by 4 days to Aug 19.
• Workers at Woodside and Chevron LNG platforms and facilities in Australia have voted to strike, threatening to disrupt LNG supply, meaning the workforce can cease operations with seven day’s notice.
• Total European gas in store is above the five year range up to 87.72% full on a 7 Aug according to GIE data compared to the five year average for this time of year of 73.3%.
• LNG sendout to Europe recovered back up to 300mcm/d on 7 August with increased flows to NW Europe and Italy. The JKM-TTF spreads is edging lower but near term US LNG exports remain more profitable to deliver to Asia over Europe.
• Europe’s energy market is still at risk of spiking prices this winter, according to EON CEO Leonhard Birnbaum.
• Norwegian hydropower reserves remained flat on the week at 73.8% of capacity as of 8 August, narrowing the surplus to the 5-year average, NVE data showed.
• The JKM-TTF spread is narrowing as TTF rallies.
• The US netback to Asia in September was at $7.04/MMBtu, and $8.29/MMBtu for October, compared to $6.42/MMBtu and $7.58/MMBtu to Europe according to Bloomberg before the TTF rally today.
• JKM Sep 23 down -0.2% at 10.96$/mmbtu
• JKM-TTF Sep 23 down -1.9$/mmbtu at -0.84$/mmbtu