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NATGAS: TTF Drifts Lower as Ukraine Transit Gas Supplies Remain Near Normal

NATGAS

TTF front month is drifting lower from a high of €42.9/MWh on Aug 12 with pipeline supplies through Ukraine holding near normal despite Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk.

  • Gas transit flows through Ukraine are again nominated at the normal level at 42.4mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 331.1mcm/d with capacity reductions of 16mcm/d expected until Aug 23 according to Gassco.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to continue to cool into the coming weekend and then hold near or just above normal next week. 
  • Below normal storage injection rates are slowly edging European stores up towards the EU pre winter target to 88.24% full on Aug 13 according to GIE compared to the five year average of 80.1%.
  • European LNG sendout was relatively unchanged at 219mcm/d on Aug 13 according to Bloomberg after falling to the lowest since 2021 at 184mcm/d last weekend.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today down to 46.4cm/d.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was back down to 275k on Aug 14.
    • TTF SEP 24 down 0.6% at 38.75€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 down 0.6% at 42.12€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 0.4% at 40.72€/MWh
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