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NATGAS: TTF Eases Lower as Steady Fundamentals Offset Middle East Risk

NATGAS
Energy BulletsBulletPower BulletsCommodities

TTF continues to ease back from the high of €40.545/MWh early yesterday as the market balances Middle East supply risks against current stable fundamentals amid relatively muted demand.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected just below normal in the coming days before rising over the weekend back above normal next week followed by slight cooling into mid month.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated up to 290.1mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 57.4mcm/d today including an unplanned capacity reduction of 15.8mcm/d at Troll due to a compressor failure.
  • European LNG sendout was up slightly to 236mcm/d on Oct. 1, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 245mcm/d in September.
  • European gas storage remains healthy despite recent low injection rates but with a very small net withdrawal on the day. Gas storage is 94.34% full on Oct. 1, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 90.3%.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today estimated at 51.7mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.26mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 295k on Oct. 2.
    • TTF NOV 24 down 0.9% at 38.29€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 0.8% at 39.25€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 1% at 37.39€/MWh
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TTF continues to ease back from the high of €40.545/MWh early yesterday as the market balances Middle East supply risks against current stable fundamentals amid relatively muted demand.

  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected just below normal in the coming days before rising over the weekend back above normal next week followed by slight cooling into mid month.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated up to 290.1mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 57.4mcm/d today including an unplanned capacity reduction of 15.8mcm/d at Troll due to a compressor failure.
  • European LNG sendout was up slightly to 236mcm/d on Oct. 1, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 245mcm/d in September.
  • European gas storage remains healthy despite recent low injection rates but with a very small net withdrawal on the day. Gas storage is 94.34% full on Oct. 1, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 90.3%.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today estimated at 51.7mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.26mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 295k on Oct. 2.
    • TTF NOV 24 down 0.9% at 38.29€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 down 0.8% at 39.25€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 down 1% at 37.39€/MWh