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NATGAS: TTF Extends Recovery Amid Cold Weather and Middle East Risks

NATGAS

TTF continues to recover from the decline mid last week with optimism for winter pipeline supplies via Ukraine and recovering Norway flows set against rising Middle East tensions and with below normal temperatures later this week.

  • Israel targeted rocket launchers in southern Lebanon over the weekend after striking Hezbollah leadership in Beirut. Hezbollah fired around 150 rockets and missiles into Israel. The UN has counselled both sides to step back from the brink.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to gradually fall below normal by the end of the week before rallying back to near normal into the start of October.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 277.8mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages down at 55.6mcm/d today and expected to decline further to 38.6mcm/d by the weekend.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is estimated at 42.9mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 41.9mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European LNG sendout was back down to 212mcm/d on Sept. 21, according to Bloomberg, from a recent high of 282mcm/d on Sept. 19.
  • European gas storage has edged higher to 93.63% full on Sep 21, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 88.6%.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 403k on Sep 20.
    • TTF OCT 24 up 1.9% at 35.1€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 1.8% at 36.73€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 2.2% at 35.9€/MWh
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TTF continues to recover from the decline mid last week with optimism for winter pipeline supplies via Ukraine and recovering Norway flows set against rising Middle East tensions and with below normal temperatures later this week.

  • Israel targeted rocket launchers in southern Lebanon over the weekend after striking Hezbollah leadership in Beirut. Hezbollah fired around 150 rockets and missiles into Israel. The UN has counselled both sides to step back from the brink.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected to gradually fall below normal by the end of the week before rallying back to near normal into the start of October.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 277.8mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages down at 55.6mcm/d today and expected to decline further to 38.6mcm/d by the weekend.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is estimated at 42.9mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 41.9mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European LNG sendout was back down to 212mcm/d on Sept. 21, according to Bloomberg, from a recent high of 282mcm/d on Sept. 19.
  • European gas storage has edged higher to 93.63% full on Sep 21, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 88.6%.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 403k on Sep 20.
    • TTF OCT 24 up 1.9% at 35.1€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 1.8% at 36.73€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 2.2% at 35.9€/MWh