NATGAS: TTF Holds Steady with Focus on US Hurricane Impact

TTF front month remains steady after a decline to new lows of the month at €34.67/MWh yesterday. European fundamentals are coping despite current pipeline supply cuts and US LNG supply risks due to a hurricane in the US Gulf. Healthy underground storage and higher than normal LNG volumes at sea are helping to ease tight supply fears as the winter heating season approaches.

• Hurricane Francine is due to make landfall today in Louisiana with Cameron LNG, Calcasieu Pass LNG and the Driftwood LNG development along the projected path. Freeport LNG said it had begun storm preparations at its Texas plant without providing details.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 192.8mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 175.4mcm/d today rising slightly to 181.9mcm/d tomorrow.
• Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara have edged higher again but remain well below normal at 27.2mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
• European LNG sendout was up on the day to 248mcm/d on Sept. 8 compared to an average of 258mcm/d in the previous week according to Bloomberg.
• European gas storage edges up to 93.09% full on Sep 9 according to GIE compared to the five year average of 86.55% with injections rates still below normal.
• Below normal temperatures are expected in NW Europe in the coming days before slowly recovering back towards seasonal normal levels or just above after the middle of the month.
• Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
• ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 392k on Sep 10.
  • TTF OCT 24 up 0.6% at 35.51€/MWh
  • TTF WIN 24 up 0.3% at 37.8€/MWh
  • TTF SUM 25 down 0.2% at 36.7€/MWh