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NATGAS: TTF Rallies on LNG Supply Risk from Middle East Escalation

NATGAS
Energy BulletsBulletPower BulletsCommodities

TTF front month has eased back from a high of €40.545/MWh after prices surged on LNG supply risks after Iran airstrikes on Israel. The Middle East escalation represents one of the most significant attacks with as many as 200 ballistic missiles fired at Israel which were largely thwarted by Israel’s defence systems.

  • The Karish gas field remains operational despite Chevron yesterday shutting the Tamar and Leviathion gas fields off Isreal for “a brief period of time as a precautionary measure” due to the strikes by Iran.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected just below normal in the coming days before rising over the weekend back above normal next week.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated down at 282.6mcm/d today with an unplanned capacity reduced of 10.8mcm/d at Troll due to a compressor failure, according to Bloomberg.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today estimated at 52.0mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.1mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European LNG sendout was up slightly to 228mcm/d on Sept. 30, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 245mcm/d in September.
  • European gas storage is up to 94.37% of capacity on Sep 30, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 90.1%.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 386k on Oct. 1.
    • TTF NOV 24 up 1.2% at 39.76€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 up 1.2% at 40.45€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 1% at 38.3€/MWh
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TTF front month has eased back from a high of €40.545/MWh after prices surged on LNG supply risks after Iran airstrikes on Israel. The Middle East escalation represents one of the most significant attacks with as many as 200 ballistic missiles fired at Israel which were largely thwarted by Israel’s defence systems.

  • The Karish gas field remains operational despite Chevron yesterday shutting the Tamar and Leviathion gas fields off Isreal for “a brief period of time as a precautionary measure” due to the strikes by Iran.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected just below normal in the coming days before rising over the weekend back above normal next week.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are nominated down at 282.6mcm/d today with an unplanned capacity reduced of 10.8mcm/d at Troll due to a compressor failure, according to Bloomberg.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is today estimated at 52.0mcm/d, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.1mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European LNG sendout was up slightly to 228mcm/d on Sept. 30, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 245mcm/d in September.
  • European gas storage is up to 94.37% of capacity on Sep 30, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 90.1%.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume was 386k on Oct. 1.
    • TTF NOV 24 up 1.2% at 39.76€/MWh
    • TTF Q1 25 up 1.2% at 40.45€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 1% at 38.3€/MWh