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NATGAS: TTF Rebounds After Drop Yesterday Due to Possible Azeri Gas Supply

NATGAS
Energy BulletsBulletPower BulletsCommodities

TTF has rebounded after falling to the lowest since late July yesterday on reports of potential for a deal to supply gas from Azerbaijan to Europe transiting via Ukraine when the Russia deal ends, although nothing has yet been signed.

  • The market is also weighing colder weather next week, a delayed return of some Norwegian pipeline supplies and renewed risks of an escalation in Middle East tensions with Israeli Defense Minister suggested a ‘new phase’ in the war is imminent.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected above normal for the coming few days, but forecast to drop below normal into the last few days of the month.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 221.0mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 156.4mcm/d today with extended outages at several fields which were due to return yesterday. Unavailable capacity is due to fall to 89.5mcm/d over the weekend.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is estimated up to 44.3mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European LNG sendout was unchanged on the day at 265mcm/d on Sept. 18, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 253mcm/d so far this month.
  • European gas storage has edged higher to 93.45% full on Sep 18, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 88.1%.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume surged to 755k on Sep 19.
    • TTF OCT 24 up 3.1% at 34.13€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 2.2% at 35.78€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 2.2% at 34.89€/MWh
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TTF has rebounded after falling to the lowest since late July yesterday on reports of potential for a deal to supply gas from Azerbaijan to Europe transiting via Ukraine when the Russia deal ends, although nothing has yet been signed.

  • The market is also weighing colder weather next week, a delayed return of some Norwegian pipeline supplies and renewed risks of an escalation in Middle East tensions with Israeli Defense Minister suggested a ‘new phase’ in the war is imminent.
  • Temperatures in NW Europe are expected above normal for the coming few days, but forecast to drop below normal into the last few days of the month.
  • Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today nominated at 221.0mcm/d, according to Bloomberg. Gassco shows outages of 156.4mcm/d today with extended outages at several fields which were due to return yesterday. Unavailable capacity is due to fall to 89.5mcm/d over the weekend.
  • Algeria gas flow to Italy at Mazara is estimated up to 44.3mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
  • Gas transit flows via Sudzha are nominated at 42.3mcm/d today, according to Ukraine’s gas transmission operator.
  • European LNG sendout was unchanged on the day at 265mcm/d on Sept. 18, according to Bloomberg, compared to an average of 253mcm/d so far this month.
  • European gas storage has edged higher to 93.45% full on Sep 18, according to GIE, compared to the five-year average of 88.1%.
  • ICE TTF daily aggregate traded futures volume surged to 755k on Sep 19.
    • TTF OCT 24 up 3.1% at 34.13€/MWh
    • TTF WIN 24 up 2.2% at 35.78€/MWh
    • TTF SUM 25 up 2.2% at 34.89€/MWh